Tailing in betting

MY THOUGHTS ON TAILING…

by itg sports · in ITG life

To tail or not to tail?

Or in other words…that guy seems to know what he’s doing.  I’m going to make the same bet as him and cross my fingers.

It seems like I have seen more and more banter about tailing picks and since I have had a little experience with this I decided to write about it.

I was on quite the losing streak when I decided to first start thinking about tailing over a year ago.  I didn’t have a clue what I was doing so I picked out like 7 or 8 different twitter handicappers and made a spread sheet.

It was a sad day as I had basically conceded that I just wasn’t cut out for sports gambling despite my increasing interest.  It would be ok though as I assumed that with this compilation of sharp minds I would be a winner for sure.  My pride was hurt but the money would spend just the same.

You could imagine my surprise after 3 days and over 50 picks when my self-made hedge fund was only like 2 games over .500.

I quickly decided that I would rather keep trying to be a winner than risk being a loser with some one else’s bets.  I have said on more than one occasion that a tailed win doesn’t satisfy you nearly as much as a tailed loss stings you.

I would like to think I was a more advanced sports bettor when I jumped back into tailing picks a few months ago.  I was tailing So Money Sports pretty exclusively but I also followed a couple of bets by Philly God Father who sends them out less often.  Over a month’s time the bets I was tailing were something like 14-4 and I felt pretty invincible.  I even tweeted out one night after hitting 2 tailed plays “Maybe being sharp is just knowing who else is sharp.”

Now keep in mind that no research of my own was going into these plays and I wasn’t tailing every play.  I was simply picking and choosing.  I started tailing a couple of other guys and eight straight tailed losses later and it was back to the drawing board.  One of the worst feelings you can have is making two bets of your own and tailing two of someone else and having your two win and the two you followed lose.

I once again quit tailing but I was tracking So Money Sports in a spreadsheet at the time and I kept doing so in an effort to try to learn a little about his style.   Although he hit right at 60% of his bets across 4 sports if you were picking and choosing it would be virtually impossible to profit substantially as it wasn’t uncommon for him to hit 7 in a row and then lose 5 in a row.

It really hit me that guys like this weren’t trying to grind out an 8-4 week.  They were trying to hit as close to 60% as possible over thousands of plays.  There might be 10 straight losses but it didn’t mean anything because there would be 15 straight wins at some point in time as well.

If you are going to tail somebody I would suggest So Money Sports and here is why.  He normally sends out one bet a day, maybe two.  On a high action day you will see three.  Even if you are horrible at money management its tough to mess that up.

There are plenty of guys out there with lots of followers (who seem to be sharp dudes) that will make 5 to 10 plays a day.  After an 8-2 performance you might think that is definitely a person to be tailing but just remember a 2-8 night will happen.  If you just so happen to jump on one of the bad nights you could really put a major dent in your bank roll.

No matter who you are tailing you should really practice sound money management.  I wouldn’t suggest varying your bet sizes but predetermine a small percentage of your bank roll and use that for every bet.

As a beginner strive to be that guy that hits 55% rather than the guy that hits 50% but has a knack for hitting those plus money bets or the double up bets.  If you are tailing look for a guy that does the same thing.

I’m rambling at this point but I have one more point to make.  Rather than just tailing someone’s plays, handicap their plays.

I feel like one of the biggest steps I have made was taking bets that So Money sent out and handicapping them myself.  Not just tracking them but really handicapping them to see what I thought.  I remember specifically an obscure NCAAB game where Hawaii was a 10.5 point underdog and based on the averages alone they should have been favored.  I bet it myself and Hawaii lost by 7.  Easy money.

If you try to find what some of these sharp guys are seeing there is a good chance that you will succeed.  The great thing is that it might not be as complicated as you think.

Long story short.  Even if you are tailing try not to make it a lottery ticket.  Find someone you trust, develop a process, manage your bankroll properly, and commit to a longer follow than just one day.

Oh yeah, if they tweet a bet delete it if it loses…find someone else to tail.

BETTING TIPS

I just read this from askthebookie.com i think you have to also.

Sports Betting Tips For Active Bettors

The majority of bets placed on sports are made with little knowledge. The average bettor may think they have an inside tip or know about a game well enough to predict to a winner, but the harsh reality is; most do not take all factors into consideration which leads to placing a losing bet.

There’s more to betting on sports than just picking winners. While having an uncanny knack for doing so is a definite plus, there is still more you can do to maximize your winning potential. For the 99% who have no such luck at picking a winner, we need every edge we can get. Even if you aren’t the best at betting on sports there’s still hope. Chances are, you’re simply going on the fly and not considering other aspects of the betting world that can determine a winner from a loser.

Shop Sports Lines

This is likely one tip you’ve heard before, but still don’t use it as much as you could be. Finding the best line can be one of the most important steps in turning your losing day into a winner. Having online sports books makes this easier than ever. Do a quick search in Google for sports betting sites, and you’ll find about 200 or more, ready to take your bets. A bit of time doing some research to find the best line can make all the difference in the world.

It’s very common to find varying lines across sites. Think of how many times you lost a bet due to a point or less. Many of those bets could have been winners if you found a better line at another bookie. You may see another line that is ½ a point better and think, “Meh, it’s just a half point”, but I’m sure you understand now just how important that 1/2 point can be.

It’s easy to understand that shopping lines is not as easy as it may sound. We all have a bookie we trust and have become our go-to site. I personally can relate to this as well. Often times I use the place I poker at as my sports book out of sheer laziness. After talking with friends about our bets for the day, I find out that my book had the worse line of all sites. Stop being lazy and make some money for a change by doing a little homework before your bets.

Diversify Your Bets

This leads me into our next tip. It follows the general principle of shopping lines. In order to utilize a good line you find you must have an account at that site. It’s best to have accounts at multiple books in order to easily and effectively take advantage of better lines.

This is also a good way to take advantage of bonuses offered by different betting sites. You gain a little extra cash just for being prepared and having plenty of options. If you’re looking for a good, reputable site, you can check this link out for some reviews of the more reputable and popular online sports betting sites.

Don’t Bet the Bank on a “Sure Thing”

If you frequent sports betting pick sites, you will almost hear the term; “Sure Thing”, or even “It’s a Lock”. This is little more than sales jargon to get you to buy their services. A game can often seem a sure thing given the match up, but never put too much stock into someone touting a pick such as this.

Too often I hear stories of lost bankrolls from bettors who put the farm on what they thought were a lock. I remember my first sure thing. It was back when the Baltimore Ravens had a rookie quarterback going on the road to face what was supposed to be a Super Bowl contending Bengals. Let’s just say I don’t bet on the Ravens anymore. I had to learn my lesson the hard way, but you don’t need to fall victim to this. I’m, not saying don’t ever bet on a lock pick, just don’t bet your entire bankroll with the hopes of striking gold.

Live Sports Betting

Live betting is a way that you can bet on games that are happening at the moment. For example: I’m watching the Australian Open in the background as I’m writing this. If I wanted to, I could go online and bet on the match in real time. The lines will change constantly as the game progresses, but often times you can find a solid bet that will almost guarantee a profit.

These live bets often go overlooked as they offer little return on an investment. However, a lot of times these live bets are almost guaranteed profits. I know I said not to put much stock in sure things, and live betting is no different. Having said that, you will find some live bets where the only way you can lose if the team or player forfeits.

While the money you can make on live betting is minimal at times, it should be a tool that you have in your sports betting arsenal.

I think you can see the overall theme to this guide. It’s all about leaving yourself with options. The more options we have the better decisions we can make and more importantly, the more money we stand to make.

The 100 unit guy

For me any tout that sends or makes 100 unit or 50 unit plays are just fooling people.

This was the last email of mr sharp

CBB + NBA PLAYS (5 MEMBERS PLAYS)

PICK #1 (*NBA*) OKC -8 *Win 50Units*

PICK #2 (*CBB*) KANSAS -ML *Win 50Units*

PICK #3 (*NBA*) UTAH / BLAZERS OVER 197 (-110) *Win 100Units* TOP SHARP PLAY!!

PICK #4 (*CBB*) MICHIGAN ST +3 :BUY POINT: (-130) *Win 100Units* TOP SHARP PLAY!!!

PICK #5 (*CBB*) FLORIDA -13 :BUY 1/2 POINT: (-120) *Win 50Units*

So here he lost 150+ units bc of the juice.. So its just stupid for me...

Stupid people

Its amazing how people can be this stupid. I was in some time too.
Its just too much for me to handle how people beleive in scammers.
For example, some guy charges money for picks. I think if he does he is entitled to document his picks as he is charging for a service.
If he doesnt its a red flag or not?

Then he loses lets say 250 units in one day and obviously all social media is on mute. The next day he wins 2 50units plays and loses like 3 or for 10 to 15 units plays. If you went to school (1st grade) you can know that its almost even or cAn even lose money.

And when this happen some idiots give shoutouts of the huge winnings ( dont see them) to this touts. Its just too stupid for me.

There can be some reasons.

1. This stupid idiotic people are not real and its the same tout giving him this compliments.
2. People are just too stupid
3. Are his friends and dont bet obviously bc if do they will be losing money.

Anyway its not the touts fault its the person that pays him and puts his confidence n him.

I only want to show this people how wrong they are so they dont get in a hole to deep and will be hard to get out from it.