MY THOUGHTS ON TAILING…

To tail or not to tail?

Or in other words…that guy seems to know what he’s doing. I’m going to make the same bet as him and cross my fingers.

It seems like I have seen more and more banter about tailing picks and since I have had a little experience with this I decided to write about it.

I was on quite the losing streak when I decided to first start thinking about tailing over a year ago. I didn’t have a clue what I was doing so I picked out like 7 or 8 different twitter handicappers and made a spread sheet.

It was a sad day as I had basically conceded that I just wasn’t cut out for sports gambling despite my increasing interest. It would be ok though as I assumed that with this compilation of sharp minds I would be a winner for sure. My pride was hurt but the money would spend just the same.

You could imagine my surprise after 3 days and over 50 picks when my self-made hedge fund was only like 2 games over .500.

I quickly decided that I would rather keep trying to be a winner than risk being a loser with some one else’s bets. I have said on more than one occasion that a tailed win doesn’t satisfy you nearly as much as a tailed loss stings you.

I would like to think I was a more advanced sports bettor when I jumped back into tailing picks a few months ago. I was tailing So Money Sports pretty exclusively but I also followed a couple of bets by Philly God Father who sends them out less often. Over a month’s time the bets I was tailing were something like 14-4 and I felt pretty invincible. I even tweeted out one night after hitting 2 tailed plays “Maybe being sharp is just knowing who else is sharp.”

Now keep in mind that no research of my own was going into these plays and I wasn’t tailing every play. I was simply picking and choosing. I started tailing a couple of other guys and eight straight tailed losses later and it was back to the drawing board. One of the worst feelings you can have is making two bets of your own and tailing two of someone else and having your two win and the two you followed lose.

I once again quit tailing but I was tracking So Money Sports in a spreadsheet at the time and I kept doing so in an effort to try to learn a little about his style. Although he hit right at 60% of his bets across 4 sports if you were picking and choosing it would be virtually impossible to profit substantially as it wasn’t uncommon for him to hit 7 in a row and then lose 5 in a row.

It really hit me that guys like this weren’t trying to grind out an 8-4 week. They were trying to hit as close to 60% as possible over thousands of plays. There might be 10 straight losses but it didn’t mean anything because there would be 15 straight wins at some point in time as well.

If you are going to tail somebody I would suggest So Money Sports and here is why. He normally sends out one bet a day, maybe two. On a high action day you will see three. Even if you are horrible at money management its tough to mess that up.

There are plenty of guys out there with lots of followers (who seem to be sharp dudes) that will make 5 to 10 plays a day. After an 8-2 performance you might think that is definitely a person to be tailing but just remember a 2-8 night will happen. If you just so happen to jump on one of the bad nights you could really put a major dent in your bank roll.

No matter who you are tailing you should really practice sound money management. I wouldn’t suggest varying your bet sizes but predetermine a small percentage of your bank roll and use that for every bet.

As a beginner strive to be that guy that hits 55% rather than the guy that hits 50% but has a knack for hitting those plus money bets or the double up bets. If you are tailing look for a guy that does the same thing.

I’m rambling at this point but I have one more point to make. Rather than just tailing someone’s plays, handicap their plays.

I feel like one of the biggest steps I have made was taking bets that So Money sent out and handicapping them myself. Not just tracking them but really handicapping them to see what I thought. I remember specifically an obscure NCAAB game where Hawaii was a 10.5 point underdog and based on the averages alone they should have been favored. I bet it myself and Hawaii lost by 7. Easy money.

If you try to find what some of these sharp guys are seeing there is a good chance that you will succeed. The great thing is that it might not be as complicated as you think.

Long story short. Even if you are tailing try not to make it a lottery ticket. Find someone you trust, develop a process, manage your bankroll properly, and commit to a longer follow than just one day.

Oh yeah, if they tweet a bet delete it if it loses…find someone else to tail.